Nestle, Hershey, Ferrero, Kraft all in the run for Cadbury

‘Sweet’ news this week; Cadbury, Hershey, Nestle, Kraft and Ferrero all in the headlines is something that a person who loves chocolate, candy, gums, ice-cream would not miss. This news makes me think of my favourites, Nutella and Oreos.

Cadbury, Britain’s chocolate makers, has been in the ‘spotlight’ since August when Kraft made an offer of £9.9bn. However, the offer was refused because as Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr said, “it did not come remotely close to reflecting the true value of the company”. Since then Cadbury share price has increased so much that it reached 819.5 pence on November 23^rd 2009 which is record level for the company. Furthermore, Ferrero, Hershey and Nestle are all ‘thinking’ about putting a bid for Cadbury as well; this has certainly influenced Cadbury’s share price in a positive way as these three are the world’s biggest confectioners. The American confectioner, Hershey, is pushed by the charitable trust which controls it to make a £10.3bn solo bid for Cadbury. Recent improvements in debt markets which lead to an increase in the amount banks are willing to lend enabled Hershey to finance a stand-alone bid. Cadbury and Hershey are already very well connected as Hershey produces and sells Cadbury products in the US. Hershey’s goal is to enhance its position in the European market through Cadbury as it is an established company which has high brand awareness. I do not see this as a good move for Hershey; the company which was considering selling Wrigley is now trying to massively expand its operations. Hershey’s market cap. is just over $8bn and I believe it is very risking for them to go forward with potential $17bn bid for Cadbury. Furthermore, there seems to be a possibility that Ferrero and Hershey create some kind of joint bid, as daily Il Sole 24 Ore, reported on 21^st November. Family controlling Ferrero is mainly interested in candy and chewing gum business and values Cadbury’s assets that it wants at $11.9bn. They are currently talking to Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and UniCredit SpA about financing the offer. Cadbury seems to be on standby waiting for the highest bid to emerge, and they are now in the position to choose the deal they see fits them the best. Cadbury share price started shooting through the roof when Nestle announce that they are reviewing a possible offer for Cadbury on Monday morning (23^rd November).

The Cadbury story is interesting as it involves big names such as Kraft, Nestle, Ferrero and therefore media has been covering the story from day one and updating it hourly as new information comes out and as more companies join Cadbury bid list.

I have read several articles from Telegraph, Bloomberg, Sky News, Reuters UK, Wall Street Journal and Times Online in order to get a clear picture of what is the latest news on Cadbury and its potential buyers. Each article had a different approach, but information they enclosed in the story was more less the same.

After reading Telegraph story “Hershey lines up $17bn solo bid for Cadbury” I asked myself where did all this info came from since the articles concludes with “Spokesmen for Hershey and the Hershey Trust Company did not return calls. Cadbury declined to comment.” Throughout the article there has not been a single quote or something that would indicate where did information come from, or who was interviewed etc. Because of that I would say that the articles is to some extend bias, otherwise in gives a good understanding to the reader of the latest news and happenings in the case of Cadbury. The article concentrates more on Hershey bid and does not comment much on other companies which are possible Cadbury buyers. Language is clear and it seems that there is no spin on the story; one thing lacking is the source of information because the reader does not know where does all that info come from and how reliable it is. However, saying in the end that spokesman for Hershey did not return calls and that Cadbury refused to comment gives the reader heads up that it might be good idea to look for secondary source of information. Overall the article gives a positive message about the possible bid.

The article by Bloomberg concentrates as well on Hershey and Cadbury. However, surprisingly Bloomberg based their article on Wall Street Journal which I find odd and unusual. There is a small paragraph on the possible joint-bid by Ferrero and Hershey which is based on Il Sole 24 Ore, Italian newspaper. I would imagine that Bloomberg would do lot more research on the story rather than base it on what other newspapers have written about it. Overall there is no “new” news since the story seems to be more of a ‘summary’ what Il Sole 24 Ore and Wall Street Journal wrote. The article gives a good overview of all possible Cadbury buyers and how would each of them benefit from the purchase.

The article from Sky News seems to be very up to date with share price movements and it concentrates more on Nestle becoming “the latest name to joint the list of rivals circling the British chocolate maker”. Unlike other articles I read, Sky News actually uses quotes from industry analysts and Cadbury chairman Roger Carr which gives certain weight to the story and makes it more real, more reliable. However, the story delivers more of a negative message since it criticises the Kraft “derisory” bid of £9.8bn. It seems that the article is more in favour of Swiss giant, Nestle, but the good question is why?

Times Online chose to concentrate on share prices of major UK companies and therefore Cadbury found its way into this article as well. It gives very brief overview on what is going on with Cadbury and share prices.

Overall the story is ‘sexy’ because it involves very well known companies and more importantly companies that have been extremely successful in what they do. Nestle and Cadbury have both been in news years before for scandals about their products which has not been mentioned in news these days. Media sometimes tends to ‘dig out all dirt’ they can find, but surprisingly this time they kept quite. I believe that the story is written primarily for the investors, but also general public. This is a perfect example of that media can do to boots or destroy share prices of any given company. My personal opinion in that Cadbury should not go just for the company that gives the highest bid, but also look at strategic possibilities that those companies offer. It is good to remember that sometimes it is not about quantity, it is about quality. My favourites are Nestle and Ferrero because I believe Cadbury needs to expand its operation to the markets where Nestle and Ferrero are very well establish like Italy and Russia for example. And also Nutella and Ferrero Roche just sound right to me. The future will show how Cadbury decides to deal with all the possibilities it has and whether they will chose the right path. The question remains, will Cadbury have a meltdown and will this turn to a price war?

Sources:

Sky News

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Nestle-Joins-Cadbury-Rival-Bid-List-Hershey-And-Ferrero-Already-Considering-Topping-Kraft-Offer/Article/200911415463177?lpos=Business_News_Your_Way_Region_6&lid=NewsYourWay_ARTICLE_15463177_Nestle_Joins_Cadbury_Rival_Bid_List%3A_Hershey_And_Ferrero_Already_Considering_Topping_Kraft_Offer

Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/6619071/Hershey-lines-up-17bn-solo-bid-for-Cadbury.html

Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/6634520/Cadbury-shares-jump-to-a-record-high-on-hopes-of-new-bidders.html

Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abyLAqm3co_s&pos=4

Reuters UK

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKGEE5AM18O20091123

Wall Street Journal

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091123-706887.html